Thorny Road of Bosnia and Herzegovina to NATO Membership

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The first interference of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization into Bosnian affairs dates from the beginning of the 1990s when they tried to bring to an end conflicts in the Western Balkans. Their role of the peacebuilding mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina reflects in assisting during the nine-year period (from 1995 to 2004) legally warranted by the Dayton Peace Agreement signed in 1995. Since 2004, responsibility for military issues has been taken over by the European Union and their conduct of the EUFOR Althea operation. This handover of duties does not mean the permanently absence of the NATO forces in Bosnia. Based on the Berlin Plus Agreement, NATO is obliged to provide necessary assistance to the European Union Forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina.  Bosnia and Herzegovina officially and legally seek NATO membership, which is approved by submitting the Annual National Program to the NATO Headquarters, which directly means adoption of the Reform Program. This step closer to NATO membership is enabled through the Membership Action Plan to which Bosnia was invited to join in 2010.  Lying between East and West, the position of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the international system is neither neutral nor determined. Internal political affairs connected to the attitude and political functions trading among three constitutional people led to the submission of the Reform Program in 2019 but, consequently, public denial of signing this document by a representative of the Serbian people in the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina Milorad Dodik is still present. These internal turmoils put Bosnia and Herzegovina into torn position, which does not allow its statehood to be either politically or geopolitically oriented. Considering the current situation in Europe and Ukrainian War, Bosnia and Herzegovina has never been more involved in rumors of rapid joining NATO to prevent itself from Russian interference and possible use of Russian hard power to achieve its long-term ideology of affiliation with the Western Balkans to create integral territory. Being a member of a defensive alliance such as the NATO would bring Bosnia and Herzegovina security in the international system and it will exclude all possible military attacks by Russia and pro-Russian states. This is for sure if we observe it from the top, but internally it can cause a lot of adversities. Internally, ethnic Serbs do not agree with any cooperation with NATO, which directly leads to membership, and can cause new conflict among people and it also would give the space for the realization of intentions related to the dissolution of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The latest question is whether the mandate of EUFOR Althea operation would be extended by the United Nations Security Council in November 2022. The point is that Serbian political authorities advocate „the walkout of foreigners“ in general as well as the military forces of the European Union. On the other side, if Russia vetoes the UN Security Council decision, the NATO forces have a legal right to take over the EUFOR Althea operation responsibilities according to the Dayton Peace Agreement. The EUFOR Althea operation is a legal successor of NATO’s SFOR operation in Bosnia and Herzegovina legally supported by the UN Security Council Resolution 1551 adopted in 2004.  No doubt that the Russian decision would have features of a double-edged sword and it would affect the interests of the pro-Russian side in Bosnia and Herzegovina whether they extend the mandate of the EUFOR Althea operation or veto the decision. The fact is that Bosnia and Herzegovina tightly cooperates with NATO and extends its military interoperability capabilities. The latest news from Bosnia and Herzegovina regarding meeting the requirements for NATO membership tells that the Armed Forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina in September this year underwent the most difficult test in their 16-year history, called NATO Evaluation Level 2, and they succeeded with a training score of “Excellent“. Militarily, Bosnia and Herzegovina is ready to join NATO thanks to its declared unit. Also, in the 2022 NATO Summit in Madrid member states agreed to provide all necessary assistance for developing a new defense capacity-building package.  NATO’s commitment to presence and maintaining peace and stability in Bosnia and Herzegovina will not be affected by any decision of Russia in the UN Security Council in November. On the other side, international society should be aware that Russia will not give up interfering in Bosnian internal affairs and will do anything to make Western foreigners leave politically and militarily that state. The period ahead and development of Ukrainian War will show us how Bosnia and Herzegovina is really close to NATO membership. 

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Germany Implements New Measures to Ease Energy Crisis

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Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war earlier in 2022, European countries have struggled to enforce new emergency measures that will protect households and businesses from high energy prices. With no access to cheap Russian natural gas, Germany has found itself in a crisis. In 2020 Germany got 55% of its gas import from Russia, and with the sanctions in place right now, the country is experiencing a major struggle. Russian energy leader Gazprom tightened the geopolitical screws on Germany, and the rest of the EU, this September with the announcement that its Nord Stream 1 pipeline would be shut down indefinitely. Gazprom’s latest move places Germany in pitfall as a freezing and uncertain winter approaches. Recently German officials celebrated the news that natural gas storage facilities have been filled to 80% of full capacity, but that only provides little comfort and security to the mass population. Currently Germany has little natural gas production, and relies almost completely on imports of natural gas to meet current demand and Russia is its largest single source. Germany’s effort to uplift its wind industry began to fail even before 2022. Ever since then the German government has been clawing its way to source additional imports to satisfy consumer and industrial needs, and that effort intensified into desperation after the Russia-Ukraine war and its sanctions. German prices for gasoline and public transport have surged on September 1st, as government subsidies expired. The price for natural gas, which is used by around 50% of households for heating, and for electricity has skyrocketed. The government is trying to encourage consumers and businesses to save energy in any way they can to prevent a shortage during the following winter months. The Energy Saving Ordinance came into force earlier this month. These are the measures Germany is taking: Economy Minister Robert Habeck from the environmentalist Green Party says he expects the measures to reduce gas consumption “by around two, two and a half percent” and calls it a “small but indispensable contribution.”

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Countries Return to Nuclear Power With Uncertainty

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Our reminder of why nuclear power still remains a highly controversial topic, is happening right now in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine. This is Ukraine’s largest nuclear power plant and right now it is under Russian occupation surrounded by intense ground combat. Due to fear of a meltdown catastrophe, it is in the process of being shut down. Despite this demonstration of nuclear risk, the war and its negative economic effects have persuaded several countries to keep nuclear power as part of their energy mix. The war in Ukraine is reviving global interest in nuclear power, since gas and oil shortages have reshaped energy markets and driven up fossil fuel prices. Countries like Japan, Germany, France, Britain and The United States are reconsidering their stance on nuclear power usage. Amidst the rising fossil fuel prices, leaders are considering building new nuclear power plants or delaying the closing of existing ones. Both Germany and Japan are under fire as both countries turned against nuclear power after the 2011 Fukushima meltdown. Despite Germany being against nuclear power until recent times, German policymakers are considering prolonging the life of three final nuclear power plants that had been scheduled to be shut down at the end of 2022. The reprieve would only be temporary. That means a year or two of using nuclear power to get through the current energy crisis — but it would still mark a significant policy reversal that has been a major focus of Germany political life since the 2010s. In late August, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced that the Japanese government is considering constructing new nuclear power plants with the goal of making them operational in the 2030s. The government may also extend the operational life of its current nuclear power plants. The prime minister also explained how he directed a government panel to look into how “next-generation nuclear reactors equipped with new safety mechanisms” can be used to help Japan achieve its goal of carbon neutrality by 2050. This council is expected to report back by the end of the year. Around 70% of French electricity is derived from nuclear power, and no other country produces more nuclear power. Today, nuclear energy earns the country more than €3 billion (US$3 billion) per year. Currently the nuclear energy industry in France is facing significant challenges. The 2022 summer heatwave has warmed the country’s rivers and lowered water levels, reducing the ability of its energy companies to use the water to cool nuclear reactors. This year France had to make half of the country’s nuclear reactors go offline. Many critics of current President Emmanuel Macron, accuse him of being inconsistent on nuclear policy as his views on nuclear power have shifted. He previously promised to reduce France’s reliance on nuclear energy, and in 2020 he managed to shut down a 42-year-old plant in Fessenheim. But in February this year, he shared his plans to build 6 new reactors (estimated cost of €50 billion). The first reactor should start operating by 2035.  The United States, that doesn’t rely as heavily on Russian gas and oil, does not face the same economic consequences from the war. But even in the US nuclear power is getting a second look due to high energy prices. The Diablo Canyon plant – the state’s largest single source of electricity – was planned to be shut down by 2025. The sudden proposal passed by the state legislature early September could keep it open 5 years longer. Additionally, the plant’s owner, Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) was given a $1.4 billion loan. “There’s no connection between building nuclear power plants and dealing with the price spike caused by the loss of Russian gas,” since they take at least a decade to construct, said Tom Burke, the chairman of E3G, a climate think tank from London. Due to current circumstances – the war, climate change and energy shortage, multiple countries are changing and reconsidering their stance on nuclear power. Could this possibly be the start to a new era of energy supply? While that remains uncertain, what is certain is that many countries will start resorting to nuclear power to make up for insignificant energy. While it might not be a huge shift, it is a slight change in how we perceive nuclear energy. Decisions made today regarding nuclear power could have economic and environmental consequences for the following decades.

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Why are Multionational Firms Eager to Buy Green Power in China

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China`s nascent green electricity trading scheme has attracted keen interest from multinational companies seeking to offset their carbon footprints in the country. But supply has been limited in a partially reformed market that is still heavily reliant on state guided power distribution. Also making it challenging for buyers and sellers to agree to deals especially long term ones is volatile global energy supply and prices amid heightened geopolitical uncertainties sparked by Russia`s invasion of Ukraine. Green power demand is strong in China as more companies hear that green power purchase agreements are now possible and available, said David Fishman, a Shanghai based senior manager at energy consultancy The Lantau Group, which helps large power users secure green energy supply. The prices and volumes of bilateral deals done through the scheme administered by the staterun green power exchanges in Guangzhou and Beijing are not made public. In the past 12 months, German chemicals giant BASF has clinched three power agreements under the scheme for its US$10 billion wholly owned petrochemical complex in Zhanjiang, western Guangdong province. These are key for BASF to achieve its plan for the facilities to be completely powered by green energy. Plants at the site, its third largest production base globally, will gradually come on line between late this year and 2030. The deals will also help the company reach its ambition to become carbon neutral by 2050, and contribute toward China`s goals of peak emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. A deal with China Resources Power a year ago was billed by BASF as a landmark initiative to open up a new green energy business model, as it was the first company to buy renewable energy under the scheme. It was followed by a 25 year framework agreement in March with State Power Investment Corp for the supply of onshore wind and solar power, and a 25 year supply contract last month with Brookfield Renewable. The Canadian firm, part of Brookfield Asset Management, will build dedicated solar and wind farms as well as energy storage facilities to support BASF`s Zhanjiang complex. It was an unprecedented longterm, fixed price deal in China that allows the consumer to decarbonise in a measurable, auditable and reportable manner, said Daniel Cheng, Brookfield`s renewable power and transition managing director. Brookfield entered China`s renewable energy market in 2017 with the acquisition of 168 megawatts of generating assets. Its China asset portfolio has since grown to 4,200MW. Still, many green power project owners have elected to sell their output to the state owned grid operators, instead of going to the trouble and cost of registering in the open markets under the scheme, Fishman said. Public market prices are high, but extra work isn’t worth the extra work  for many generators, he added, adding that it doesn’t need to be sold in the open market until 2030. In March, BASF rival Covestro’s Chinese boss Holly Ray Fanli said  the company wanted to buy more green electricity through long-term contracts, but its supply was limited. We were able to purchase a premium enough to meet 10% of the annual demand at our Shanghai plant, the world’s largest manufacturing facility. According to Fishman, long-term bilateral green power trading pricing is currently priced given the rising costs of solar systems due to material shortages and rising fossil fuel prices during the Ukrainian War. extremely difficult.

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Large-scale green hydrogen plant at Port of Antwerp-Bruges

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Plug has signed a 30-year concession agreement to build a facility in Europe’s second largest Belgian port. The company plans to build a 100 MW green hydrogen facility with its own electrolytic cell and liquefaction technology. As part of the agreement, 28 hectares of land were leased. Therefore, the plug produces up to 12,500 tonnes  of liquid and gaseous green hydrogen annually for the European market. Construction of the facility will begin at the end of 2023 after the permit process is completed. The first production of green hydrogen is expected to start at the end of 2024 and the plant is expected to go into operation in 2025. As Europe tackles climate change and energy security challenges, an agreement with the Port of Antwerp Bruges will provide the local market with the long-awaited locally produced green hydrogen, said Andy Marsh, CEO of Plug. The European energy crisis due to geopolitical risks has accelerated the demand for green hydrogen development projects.  Flanders Prime Minister Jan Jumbon said: Hydrogen plays an important role in  energy conversion and at the same time provides Flanders with many economic and social opportunities. With the strategic location of the port and the know-how of  companies, research centers and educational institutions, there are all the prerequisites for becoming a hydrogen hub in Western Europe. The port of Antwerp Bruges is strategically located in Europe. Located in the heart of the largest chemical industry cluster, close to the North Sea, it offers transportation connections to Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and France.  This should make this port an important hydrogen hub for Europe. Through its new green hydrogen facility, Plug aims to play an important role in helping ports achieve this goal. The location of the site  provides the opportunity for rapid on-site power supply of wind turbines near the site, and the power connection point is less than a mile away. In addition, the site provides customers with access to water, roads, railroads and pipelines to supply green hydrogen. A freely accessible hydrogen pipeline will be built along the site. Plug has signed a contract with Fluxys and conducted a feasibility study to enable connectivity to the pipeline. The pipeline will be part of Europe’s open access hydrogen backbone. The plug will be built in the  NextGen  area of ​​the port, a business-only area that supports the circular economy. The announcement of this project demonstrates the strength of transatlantic collaboration between international technology companies and  European port operators.

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Financial Sector Has an Urgent Challenge for New Businesses

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You order on line and the bundle arrives some days later, or some weeks later. Or it by no means arrives due to the fact there may be no inventory of the object you want to purchase. These inconveniences we frequently positioned up with disguise a instead greater extreme trouble. We are continuously listening to about “deliver chain” issues, in a bid to simplify a idea that has a far greater complicated size than it might appear. Despite its name, a deliver chain isn’t simply some of hyperlinks which breaks down if it falls apart. The profile is greater like a tree wherein some of branches lead right into a not unusualplace trunk.  This poses a trouble due to the fact the chains operated through massive corporates, inclusive of cell telecellsmartphone manufacturers, are so complex and non-obvious to make all additives take, for example, the identical measures for weather trade or preserve beforehand of viable neighborhood issues, that this turns into a huge challenge. Each hub is a factor of vulnerability, that could cut up and ship out negative waves in all instructions alongside the chain. Economic globalisation has caused the relocation of many manufacturing methods through a massive wide variety of groups buying and selling all over the global. The maximum not unusualplace layout, “simply in time”, which tries to lessen fees through shifting items at genuine instances to keep away from storing up extra quantities of additives, labored properly even as call for may want to nonetheless be predicted. Warnings had already been issued lengthy in the past to the impact that this layout turned into now no longer sustainable, and it has fallen apart.  The introduction of the pandemic expanded and exacerbated the deliver chain`s structural issues and its underlying imbalances. This, further to political anxiety and growing global electricity prices, has now installation a “best storm” situation that is forced to deal with instances of radical modifications to call for: call for has soared for a few merchandise inside a quick area of time, and for others it has plunged simply as dramatically.  The trade in change flows means that conventional deliver chain fashions at the moment are inefficient in taking the effect of this form of scenario on board. This turned into similarly exacerbated in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which gave upward push to predominant financial sanctions towards Russia and has substantially affected the sector deliver chain, specifically withinside the wake of growing oil and fueloline prices.

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Can the Rise of Green Energy Cause Problems Between Countries in EU

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Millions of European families may experience blackouts or be unable to pay to stay warm this winter due to power shortages and sky-high natural gas costs. The European Union (EU) does, however, have specific options at its disposal to assist alleviate this crisis and avert future crises. The EU can and must diversify its fuel sources to ensure that affordable, clean energy is always available. The scarcity of natural gas, which accounted for 22% of power output in the EU in 2019, is the most urgent source of the energy crisis. The EU obtains natural gas directly from Russia via the Nord Stream pipeline, but Russia has reduced supply, driving up costs and raising fears of shortages. Russia believes the lower supply is due to a seasonal shift in which more natural gas is diverted into storage caverns in preparation for increased domestic demand during the winter. The interruption in supplies, on the other hand, coincides with the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and Russia’s efforts to pressure the EU Commission into supporting the project’s ultimate approval. Because Russia is plainly not a trusted partner, EU member states must take steps to diversify their natural gas sources. Despite the fact that liquefied natural gas (LNG) is more expensive than natural gas delivered by pipeline, member states should seek LNG from the United States and the Middle East to diversify their natural gas supplies. This will help avoid the need to rely on higher-carbon-emitting energy sources like coal and oil to keep the lights turned on. For the past two decades, the EU has been attempting to make a big transition to renewable energy sources, but with limited success. Wind and solar power accounted for less than 20% of EU electricity in 2020, while hydropower accounted for only 13%. Though the percentages are increasing, there is just not enough renewable energy in the bloc at the moment, and when it is available, it is unreliable. Solar power goes out at night, and wind power goes out when the wind dies. Renewables have a significant role to play in the energy environment, but they must be adopted with a realistic understanding of the technology’ current capabilities. Renewable energy generation should be increased in the EU, but not as a substitute for stable, reliable clean energy sources.

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Green energy in EU-China relations

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Renewable energy has geopolitical consequences that go beyond the immediate impact on energy and commodity markets. Individual countries’ energy strategies have a variety of economic and political ramifications. This article examines the importance of renewable energy in EU-China relations, as two of the world’s largest renewable energy producers. Both countries’ individual objectives for decarbonization of their domestic energy systems have lately risen, and renewables are playing an increasingly crucial role in shaping their bilateral relations. As a result, we wonder what impact renewable energy has on the connection between the two parties. We use the concept of policy interdependence to capture the effect in four sectors relevant to renewable energy: climate, energy, industry, and trade and investment policy. While these are frequently thought of as independent fields, they are all connected by renewable energy. Renewable energy has the potential to be a factor of bilateral ties, according to the findings. In the past, renewable energy helped the EU and China align more closely, but today’s increased reliance on policy choices based on national goals raises barriers to further cooperation. However, the patterns of policy interdependence shown in this study point to the possibility of renewed cooperation in the sphere of energy policy, assuming policymakers’ ability to see beyond the current structure of bilateral ties. The case of renewable energy in EU-China ties demonstrates that renewables are becoming an increasingly important and powerful influencer of bilateral relations’ nature. Because of the technological differences between renewables and fossil fuels, many classic geopolitical factors may not apply in RE geopolitics. However, policy interdependence between the EU and China in the sphere of renewable energy demonstrates that renewables co-determine bilateral interactions beyond the immediate energy and material flows between individual countries. As the instance of the EU and China demonstrates, RE policies interact, resulting in more alignment and proximity on the one hand, as well as increased competitiveness and frictions on the other. As a result, the advancement of RE has the potential to “de-geopolitize” international relations, allowing states to move beyond “zero-sum” thinking in their pursuit of energy security. However, RE is not immune to worldwide competition, as seen by the growing struggle over the establishment of industrial standards in RE, as well as trade and investment.

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China-Taiwan-USA Triangle Holds the Key to War and Peace in Eastern Asia

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Tensions between Beijing and Taipei have escalated in recent times to the point that they could provoke a serious conventional, and some analysts believe even nuclear, war between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. The Cold War between Washington and Beijing, although Washington denies it, and Beijing is urging the rest of the world not to accept the logic of the Cold War, for which the ball is being transferred to Washington, has already begun and is felt in almost all strategically important regions. two superpowers collide. How is it at all possible that the question of Greater China’s relationship with a small island of 36,000 square kilometers off the coast of China could be the cause of an apocalyptic conflict such as the China-US war over Taiwan would surely be if it happened. The genesis of the China-Taiwan conflict is more than a century old. Although largely unrecognized by other countries as a state, Taiwan sees itself as an independent nation and its political leaders have vowed to defend Taiwan’s sovereignty from Chinese intentions to annex Taiwan to China, by grace or force. Taiwan, whose official name is the Republic of China (ROC) when it comes to defending against possible Chinese aggression from the United States, expects to protect it. Therefore, any increase in tensions between China and Taiwan causes additional mistrust and animosity and adds fuel to the fire of already strained relations between Washington and Beijing. Taiwan, called Formosa (beauty) by the Portuguese colonizers, is a small island located off the east coast of China. Seventy years ago, Chinese nationalists and anti-communists from the former Republican government withdrew from China to Taiwan after the 1949 Communist victory in the revolution and civil war that followed. Since then, Taiwan has continued to exist in international relations as the Republic of China (RoC). Taiwan is located in the East China Sea, northeast of Hong Kong, north of the Philippines and south of South Korea, and southwest of Japan. Therefore, its position is of special strategic importance because it is located between the Pacific and Southeast Asia. Therefore, the Taiwan issue has serious implications for global relations and concerns the whole of East Asia. After parts of Manchurian units revolted, resulting in the overthrow of the Chinese monarchy ruled by the Qing dynasty, 4,000 years of Chinese monarchist rule ended, and on December 29, 1911, the Republic of China was proclaimed. Its founder is considered to be dr. Sun Yat Sen, founder of the Kuomintang Political Party (KMT). At the head of the ruling party KMT, and the After parts of Manchurian units revolted, resulting in the overthrow of the Chinese monarchy ruled by the Qing dynasty, 4,000 years of Chinese monarchist rule ended, and on December 29, 1911, the Republic of China was proclaimed. Its founder is considered to be dr. Sun Yat Sen, founder of the Kuomintang Political Party (KMT). At the head of the ruling party KMT, and the new republic. Suna was later succeeded by General Chiang Kai-Shek, a well-known military leader who fought against Chinese communists who had previously, at the insistence of the Soviet Union, allied with the KMT in a joint fight against the occupying forces of the Japanese Imperial Army. It was a great civil war on the territory of today’s China, which ended with the triumphant victory of the communists. After suffering defeat, Chiang and his KMT supporters fled to Taiwan where they established their base, established control of the island after clashes with the domicile population, and established a state government in exile whose name is still the Republic of China. On the other hand, since its proclamation in 1949, the People’s Republic of China, led by the Communist Party of China, has insisted that must return to China and seeks to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. The Republic of China – Taiwan, on the other hand, is considered the legitimate government of China. During the first two decades, Taiwan gained a halo of non-communist borders and dams towards China in the context of the Cold War policy. Taiwan (RoC) at the time was the only ‘China’ recognized by the UN as a legitimate member of this world organization until 1971. After China bombed Taiwan-controlled Yinmen, Mazu and Dachen in 1954-55, the US Congress passed a Resolution on Formosa authorizing President Eisenhower to defend the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China). Chinese Prime Minister Zhou En-lai signaled at a non-aligned conference in Bandung, Indonesia, that he wanted to negotiate with the United States, but in 1958, China continued the bombing, provoking the United States to increase support for Taiwan.  The animosity between the United States and China over Taiwan lasted until 1971, when there was a serious turning point in the history of American foreign policy relations with China. However, as part of a policy of reprisals or detente between the US and China in order to counter the global threat and influence of the Soviet Union, relations between Washington and Beijing are warming up. Initially, the process took place in secret, and the main bearer of the rapprochement between the United States and the People’s Republic of China was Henry Kissinger, who at the time was a national security adviser in the Richard Nixon administration and later secretary of state. In 1979, the United States decided to recognize China, which received a seat and chair as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.  Despite recognizing China as an insurance policy, we would say, the United States continues to support Taiwan as a separate political entity and maintains ties with Taipei by supplying its government with weapons, although Washington has pledged to accept One China Policy, a concession to Beijing. Washington had to pay for China’s consent to act globally as an American partner in the containment of the Soviet Union. This treaty, which obliges Washington to agree to the existence of only one legitimate Chinese government, was in force until recently, when Washington, although

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The Only True Arab Democracy Challenged

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Tunisian President Kais Said dissolved parliament on July 25th, removing the prime minister temporarily by decree. Encouraged by military and security officials, Sayed also lifted parliamentary immunity for democratically elected lawmakers, threatening to subject allegedly corrupt lawmakers to the letter of the law “despite their wealth and positions.” A day later, on July 26th, the president went a step further and introduced a curfew for a period of 30 days. Those better acquainted with the situation in Tunisia believe that this kind of demonstration of force by the President of the Republic represents the most serious challenge for Tunisia’s young democracy to date, much more serious than the 2013 protests that almost derailed Tunisia’s transition from dictatorship to political pluralism and democracy. Tunisia is considered the only true modern Arab parliamentary democracy, so the latest crisis in this easternmost Arab Maghreb country is a blow to the democracy project in general in the Arab world and its future prospects, and a particular disappointment to the moderate Islamic-oriented democratic movements engendered by the Arab awakening that started from Tunisia in 2011, later straddling a wide area of North Africa and the Levant, all the way to the south of the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen. Whether Tunisia will remain the only Arab democracy or fail the test as a victim of an anti-democratic reactionary intervention that some political scientists call a “self-coup” or a temporary takeover, will depend on how the domestic and international public will react to the latest political saga in Tunisia. Every time a coup takes place the likely outcome of which seem to be to the detriment of those democratic forces that are not closely associated with leading Western powers or are a thorn in the side of regional autocracies, many analysts and ‘academic acrobats’ leave the stone unturned to find such terminology to devalue or minimize the danger such a coup may represent for a democratic processes and society as a whole. Despite the transition from dictatorship to democracy, following the adoption of a new constitution reflecting progressive secular ideas and values that was reached by broad consensus, Tunisia has been hit hard by the deep economic crisis, widespread corruption and growing dissatisfaction of ordinary citizens with poor political party performance and with the entire ruling establishment. Deep economic crisis and people’s dissatisfaction with the political situation in the country gave impetus to the political rise of President Kais Saied to the helm of the country. Saied, a professor of constitutional law, was a political outsider, but he convincingly won the 2019 presidential election being perceived as a ray of hope and an independent force who will be able to reign in dysfunctional political parties squabbling for power in perpetuity while the country was sinking deeper and deeper into the abyss. Despite his popularity among the masses, Tunisia’s 2014 constitution limited the constitutional powers of the newly elected president, establishing a semi-presidential system in which President Saied shared power with the prime minister who draws his legitimacy from the democratically elected parliament that elects him.Analysts believe that this duality of power, both a diluted and divided system, has paralyzed political processes in Tunisia and further led to its stagnation. The system of government established in way has caused a situation in which President Saied, Prime Minister Hisham Meshishi, and Parliament Speaker Rachid Ghannouchi have seriously clashed over their powers on several occasions in recent years. Allegedly, these divisions also produced a paralysis of state institutions, which had detrimental effects on strategies as to how to resolve the crisis caused by the corona virus pandemic, which further worsened the economic and political situation in Tunisia. In this situation, there are sizable segments of the population who believe in the justification of the power illegally acquired by the President of the Republic at the expense of the Prime Minister and the Speaker of Parliament, hoping that greater presidential powers could help unblock political institutions, but these are not in any way in majority. For the president, the limitations of authority in the 2014 constitution are an obstacle to making some important decisions that are necessary for the country to emerge from the crisis and to effectively fight the endemic corruption that has widely spread in the recent decade. However, in a serious democratic system, constitutional reforms are negotiated within the political system in order to reach the best solutions. In Turkey, for example, which has been subject to systematic criticism for authoritarianism, the entire system was transformed from parliamentary to presidential, but it was done through democratic processes and with the approval of citizens who voted in the referendum no matter how much some may view it as flawed. However, instead of negotiating a constitutional revision within the system and elected officials, the Tunisian president opted for usurpation of power usually akin to that of an absolute monarch or a South American dictator. David Hearst, editor of Middle East Eye (MEE), a leading and highly influential media portal covering the political situation in the Middle East, wrote about this very explicitly. Hearst, after announcing the possibility of an impending coup in Tunisia in May, was accused of “spreading political fantasies projected in the circles of his Islamist friends”. However, Hearst claims that his sources were from secular circles within the Tunisian presidency rather than from Islamist sources. Since 2011, when a wave of Arab protests against autocratic rule, later called the Arab Spring, swept through much of the Arab world, Tunisia has been going through frequent crises, although the country has avoided armed conflict like those in Syria and Libya. In addition to numerous difficulties, Tunisia managed to maintain peace and a kind of compromise between the dominant and moderate Islamists gathered around post-Islamist Ennahda party and secular political parties. Tunisia is considered a bastion of moderate Muslim democracy, primarily thanks to the political pragmatism of Rashid Ghannouchi, the leader of Ennahda and the current speaker of parliament whose work the president of Tunisia has just suspended. Ghannnouchi

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