On the 5th October Taiwan’s defense minister updated the country’s definition of a “first strike” to include Chinese military aircraft and drones that intrude on the country’s airspace.
While being interviewed, Chiu Kuo-cheng, Taiwan’s defense minister, said China’s new, aggressive stance had changed what Taiwan would define as a “first strike” that would require a response. In retaliation for U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August—the highest-ranking American politician to visit the island in 25 years—China increased its military drills, shot missiles into the vicinity of Taiwan, and flew jets across the demarcation line in the Taiwan Strait. Asked by legislator Lo Chih-cheng of the governing Democratic Progressive Party if an incursion into Taiwanese airspace by a Chinese warplane would count as a first strike, Chiu responded in the affirmative. The legislator requested confirmation that Taiwan still has a policy of not taking the “first shot” or launching the “first strike,” but rather counterattacking after being struck first. Chiu remarked that an assault using artillery or missiles was once referred to as a “first strike.”
However, he stated that the situation had obviously changed, as the PLA had started to deploy drones and other new weapons. According to Chiu, the defense ministry has already changed the definition of “first strike” to include any entry into Taiwan’s airspace by Chinese military aircraft, which is defined as being 12 nautical miles away from Taiwan’s coast. Lo questioned whether an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) entering Taiwan’s airspace is also a “first strike” in reference to China’s gray zone warfare strategies. Chiu concurred that an entry by a UAV into Taiwan’s airspace is now regarded as a “first strike.” The head of China, Xi Jinping, has declared that the “reunification” of China and Taiwan is inevitable and has refused to rule out using force to achieve this goal. Beijing and Taipei are currently experiencing their worst level of hostility in decades as a result of the Chinese military conducting extensive military exercises close to the island.
Reporters questioned the defense minister over comments made by the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of the United States, who claimed that Chinese President Xi Jinping had set a goal for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be able to invade Taiwan by 2027. In an interview with the American news program 60 Minutes, CIA Director William Burns said Xi “has instructed his military to be prepared by no later than 2027 to conduct a successful invasion of Taiwan.” David Cohen, the deputy director of the CIA, stated earlier this year that although China’s leaders would prefer to take control of Taiwan through “nonmilitary methods,” they want their military to be ready to seize the island by 2027, should such a decision be made.
According to current and former officials, after examining recent navy and air force maneuvers by the Chinese military near the island, American officials are stepping up efforts to create a massive weapon stockpile in Taiwan. The drills demonstrated that China would probably blockade the island before attempting to invade, forcing Taiwan to hold out until the United States or other countries stepped in. However, there are some difficulties in the quest to turn Taiwan into a weapons storage facility. As of now, providing weapons to Ukraine has been top priority for the United States and its allies, which is causing the nations’ stockpiles to decline. Additionally, manufacturers of weapons are hesitant to start new production lines without a consistent flow of long-term orders. Another significant danger associated with US involvement is the lack of clarity surrounding China’s potential response should the US step up military supplies to Taiwan, that is a democratic, self-governing island that Beijing claims is its own.
US officials are secretly informing Taiwanese and American arms manufacturers that they will reject orders for some large systems in favor of a greater number of smaller, more mobile weapons in order to control the quantity and types of weapons transferred to Taiwan. On September 2, the Biden administration declared that it had approved the sale of Taiwan’s sixth weapons package, a $1.1 billion deal that included 60 Harpoon coastal antiship missiles. Officials from the United States are also debating how to speed up the sale and delivery procedure. The United States is “not supporting” Taiwan’s independence, President Biden stated last month, to which he added that it is Taiwan’s own decision. Washington has made it a point to reassure Beijing that it opposes independence ever since 1979. However, in a speech at the Asia Society last month, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, said that the United States was undermining that stance “through frequent official interactions and military shipments, including several offensive weapons.”