Thorny Road of Bosnia and Herzegovina to NATO Membership

The first interference of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization into Bosnian affairs dates from the beginning of the 1990s when they tried to bring to an end conflicts in the Western Balkans. Their role of the peacebuilding mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina reflects in assisting during the nine-year period (from 1995 to 2004) legally warranted by the Dayton Peace Agreement signed in 1995. Since 2004, responsibility for military issues has been taken over by the European Union and their conduct of the EUFOR Althea operation. This handover of duties does not mean the permanently absence of the NATO forces in Bosnia. Based on the Berlin Plus Agreement, NATO is obliged to provide necessary assistance to the European Union Forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina.  Bosnia and Herzegovina officially and legally seek NATO membership, which is approved by submitting the Annual National Program to the NATO Headquarters, which directly means adoption of the Reform Program. This step closer to NATO membership is enabled through the Membership Action Plan to which Bosnia was invited to join in 2010.  Lying between East and West, the position of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the international system is neither neutral nor determined. Internal political affairs connected to the attitude and political functions trading among three constitutional people led to the submission of the Reform Program in 2019 but, consequently, public denial of signing this document by a representative of the Serbian people in the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina Milorad Dodik is still present. These internal turmoils put Bosnia and Herzegovina into torn position, which does not allow its statehood to be either politically or geopolitically oriented. Considering the current situation in Europe and Ukrainian War, Bosnia and Herzegovina has never been more involved in rumors of rapid joining NATO to prevent itself from Russian interference and possible use of Russian hard power to achieve its long-term ideology of affiliation with the Western Balkans to create integral territory. Being a member of a defensive alliance such as the NATO would bring Bosnia and Herzegovina security in the international system and it will exclude all possible military attacks by Russia and pro-Russian states. This is for sure if we observe it from the top, but internally it can cause a lot of adversities. Internally, ethnic Serbs do not agree with any cooperation with NATO, which directly leads to membership, and can cause new conflict among people and it also would give the space for the realization of intentions related to the dissolution of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The latest question is whether the mandate of EUFOR Althea operation would be extended by the United Nations Security Council in November 2022. The point is that Serbian political authorities advocate „the walkout of foreigners“ in general as well as the military forces of the European Union. On the other side, if Russia vetoes the UN Security Council decision, the NATO forces have a legal right to take over the EUFOR Althea operation responsibilities according to the Dayton Peace Agreement. The EUFOR Althea operation is a legal successor of NATO’s SFOR operation in Bosnia and Herzegovina legally supported by the UN Security Council Resolution 1551 adopted in 2004.  No doubt that the Russian decision would have features of a double-edged sword and it would affect the interests of the pro-Russian side in Bosnia and Herzegovina whether they extend the mandate of the EUFOR Althea operation or veto the decision. The fact is that Bosnia and Herzegovina tightly cooperates with NATO and extends its military interoperability capabilities. The latest news from Bosnia and Herzegovina regarding meeting the requirements for NATO membership tells that the Armed Forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina in September this year underwent the most difficult test in their 16-year history, called NATO Evaluation Level 2, and they succeeded with a training score of “Excellent“. Militarily, Bosnia and Herzegovina is ready to join NATO thanks to its declared unit. Also, in the 2022 NATO Summit in Madrid member states agreed to provide all necessary assistance for developing a new defense capacity-building package.  NATO’s commitment to presence and maintaining peace and stability in Bosnia and Herzegovina will not be affected by any decision of Russia in the UN Security Council in November. On the other side, international society should be aware that Russia will not give up interfering in Bosnian internal affairs and will do anything to make Western foreigners leave politically and militarily that state. The period ahead and development of Ukrainian War will show us how Bosnia and Herzegovina is really close to NATO membership. 

, ,

Thorny Road of Bosnia and Herzegovina to NATO Membership Read Post »

Can the Rise of Green Energy Cause Problems Between Countries in EU

Millions of European families may experience blackouts or be unable to pay to stay warm this winter due to power shortages and sky-high natural gas costs. The European Union (EU) does, however, have specific options at its disposal to assist alleviate this crisis and avert future crises. The EU can and must diversify its fuel sources to ensure that affordable, clean energy is always available. The scarcity of natural gas, which accounted for 22% of power output in the EU in 2019, is the most urgent source of the energy crisis. The EU obtains natural gas directly from Russia via the Nord Stream pipeline, but Russia has reduced supply, driving up costs and raising fears of shortages. Russia believes the lower supply is due to a seasonal shift in which more natural gas is diverted into storage caverns in preparation for increased domestic demand during the winter. The interruption in supplies, on the other hand, coincides with the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and Russia’s efforts to pressure the EU Commission into supporting the project’s ultimate approval. Because Russia is plainly not a trusted partner, EU member states must take steps to diversify their natural gas sources. Despite the fact that liquefied natural gas (LNG) is more expensive than natural gas delivered by pipeline, member states should seek LNG from the United States and the Middle East to diversify their natural gas supplies. This will help avoid the need to rely on higher-carbon-emitting energy sources like coal and oil to keep the lights turned on. For the past two decades, the EU has been attempting to make a big transition to renewable energy sources, but with limited success. Wind and solar power accounted for less than 20% of EU electricity in 2020, while hydropower accounted for only 13%. Though the percentages are increasing, there is just not enough renewable energy in the bloc at the moment, and when it is available, it is unreliable. Solar power goes out at night, and wind power goes out when the wind dies. Renewables have a significant role to play in the energy environment, but they must be adopted with a realistic understanding of the technology’ current capabilities. Renewable energy generation should be increased in the EU, but not as a substitute for stable, reliable clean energy sources.

, , , , ,

Can the Rise of Green Energy Cause Problems Between Countries in EU Read Post »

The Only True Arab Democracy Challenged

Tunisian President Kais Said dissolved parliament on July 25th, removing the prime minister temporarily by decree. Encouraged by military and security officials, Sayed also lifted parliamentary immunity for democratically elected lawmakers, threatening to subject allegedly corrupt lawmakers to the letter of the law “despite their wealth and positions.” A day later, on July 26th, the president went a step further and introduced a curfew for a period of 30 days. Those better acquainted with the situation in Tunisia believe that this kind of demonstration of force by the President of the Republic represents the most serious challenge for Tunisia’s young democracy to date, much more serious than the 2013 protests that almost derailed Tunisia’s transition from dictatorship to political pluralism and democracy. Tunisia is considered the only true modern Arab parliamentary democracy, so the latest crisis in this easternmost Arab Maghreb country is a blow to the democracy project in general in the Arab world and its future prospects, and a particular disappointment to the moderate Islamic-oriented democratic movements engendered by the Arab awakening that started from Tunisia in 2011, later straddling a wide area of North Africa and the Levant, all the way to the south of the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen. Whether Tunisia will remain the only Arab democracy or fail the test as a victim of an anti-democratic reactionary intervention that some political scientists call a “self-coup” or a temporary takeover, will depend on how the domestic and international public will react to the latest political saga in Tunisia. Every time a coup takes place the likely outcome of which seem to be to the detriment of those democratic forces that are not closely associated with leading Western powers or are a thorn in the side of regional autocracies, many analysts and ‘academic acrobats’ leave the stone unturned to find such terminology to devalue or minimize the danger such a coup may represent for a democratic processes and society as a whole. Despite the transition from dictatorship to democracy, following the adoption of a new constitution reflecting progressive secular ideas and values that was reached by broad consensus, Tunisia has been hit hard by the deep economic crisis, widespread corruption and growing dissatisfaction of ordinary citizens with poor political party performance and with the entire ruling establishment. Deep economic crisis and people’s dissatisfaction with the political situation in the country gave impetus to the political rise of President Kais Saied to the helm of the country. Saied, a professor of constitutional law, was a political outsider, but he convincingly won the 2019 presidential election being perceived as a ray of hope and an independent force who will be able to reign in dysfunctional political parties squabbling for power in perpetuity while the country was sinking deeper and deeper into the abyss. Despite his popularity among the masses, Tunisia’s 2014 constitution limited the constitutional powers of the newly elected president, establishing a semi-presidential system in which President Saied shared power with the prime minister who draws his legitimacy from the democratically elected parliament that elects him.Analysts believe that this duality of power, both a diluted and divided system, has paralyzed political processes in Tunisia and further led to its stagnation. The system of government established in way has caused a situation in which President Saied, Prime Minister Hisham Meshishi, and Parliament Speaker Rachid Ghannouchi have seriously clashed over their powers on several occasions in recent years. Allegedly, these divisions also produced a paralysis of state institutions, which had detrimental effects on strategies as to how to resolve the crisis caused by the corona virus pandemic, which further worsened the economic and political situation in Tunisia. In this situation, there are sizable segments of the population who believe in the justification of the power illegally acquired by the President of the Republic at the expense of the Prime Minister and the Speaker of Parliament, hoping that greater presidential powers could help unblock political institutions, but these are not in any way in majority. For the president, the limitations of authority in the 2014 constitution are an obstacle to making some important decisions that are necessary for the country to emerge from the crisis and to effectively fight the endemic corruption that has widely spread in the recent decade. However, in a serious democratic system, constitutional reforms are negotiated within the political system in order to reach the best solutions. In Turkey, for example, which has been subject to systematic criticism for authoritarianism, the entire system was transformed from parliamentary to presidential, but it was done through democratic processes and with the approval of citizens who voted in the referendum no matter how much some may view it as flawed. However, instead of negotiating a constitutional revision within the system and elected officials, the Tunisian president opted for usurpation of power usually akin to that of an absolute monarch or a South American dictator. David Hearst, editor of Middle East Eye (MEE), a leading and highly influential media portal covering the political situation in the Middle East, wrote about this very explicitly. Hearst, after announcing the possibility of an impending coup in Tunisia in May, was accused of “spreading political fantasies projected in the circles of his Islamist friends”. However, Hearst claims that his sources were from secular circles within the Tunisian presidency rather than from Islamist sources. Since 2011, when a wave of Arab protests against autocratic rule, later called the Arab Spring, swept through much of the Arab world, Tunisia has been going through frequent crises, although the country has avoided armed conflict like those in Syria and Libya. In addition to numerous difficulties, Tunisia managed to maintain peace and a kind of compromise between the dominant and moderate Islamists gathered around post-Islamist Ennahda party and secular political parties. Tunisia is considered a bastion of moderate Muslim democracy, primarily thanks to the political pragmatism of Rashid Ghannouchi, the leader of Ennahda and the current speaker of parliament whose work the president of Tunisia has just suspended. Ghannnouchi

, , , , ,

The Only True Arab Democracy Challenged Read Post »

Scroll to Top